Research Group Stefan Feuerriegel

Crime is responsible for major financial losses and serious harm to the well-being of individuals, and, hence, a crucial task of police operations is effective patrolling. Yet, in existing decision models aimed at police operations, microscopic routing decisions from patrolling are not considered, and, furthermore, the objective is limited to surrogate metrics (e. g., response time) instead of crime prevention. In this paper, we thus formalize the decision problem of dynamic police patrolling as a Markov decision process that models microscopic routing decisions, so that the expected number of prevented crimes are maximized. We experimentally show that standard solution approaches for our decision problem are not scalable to real-world settings. As a remedy, we present a tailored and highly efficient Monte Carlo tree search algorithm. We then demonstrate our algorithm numerically using real-world crime data from Chicago and show that the decision-making by our algorithm offers significant improvements for crime prevention over patrolling tactics from current practice. Informed by our results, we finally discuss implications for improving the patrolling tactics in police operations.

Predicting potential outcomes of interventions from observational data is crucial for decision-making in medicine, but the task is challenging due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Existing methods are largely limited to point estimates of potential outcomes with no uncertain quantification; thus, the full information about the distributions of potential outcomes is typically ignored. In this paper, we propose a novel causal diffusion model called DiffPO, which is carefully designed for reliable inferences in medicine by learning the distribution of potential outcomes. In our DiffPO, we leverage a tailored conditional denoising diffusion model to learn complex distributions, where we address the selection bias through a novel orthogonal diffusion loss. Another strength of our DiffPO method is that it is highly flexible (e.g., it can also be used to estimate different causal quantities such as CATE). Across a wide range of experiments, we show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Online hate speech is responsible for violent attacks such as, e.g., the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, thereby posing a significant threat to vulnerable groups and society in general. However, little is known about what makes hate speech on social media go viral. In this paper, we collect N = 25,219 cascades with 65,946 retweets from X (formerly known as Twitter) and classify them as hateful vs. normal. Using a generalized linear regression, we then estimate differences in the spread of hateful vs. normal content based on author and content variables. We thereby identify important determinants that explain differences in the spreading of hateful vs. normal content. For example, hateful content authored by verified users is disproportionally more likely to go viral than hateful content from non-verified ones: hateful content from a verified user (as opposed to normal content) has a 3.5 times larger cascade size, a 3.2 times longer cascade lifetime, and a 1.2 times larger structural virality. Altogether, we offer novel insights into the virality of hate speech on social media.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) presents large risks for society when it is used to create fake news. A crucial factor for fake news to go viral on social media is that users share such content. Here, we aim to shed light on the sharing behavior of users across human-generated vs. AI-generated fake news. Specifically, we study: (1) What is the perceived veracity of human-generated fake news vs. AI-generated fake news? (2) What is the user's willingness to share human-generated fake news vs. AI-generated fake news on social media? (3) What socio-economic characteristics let users fall for AI-generated fake news? To this end, we conducted a pre-registered, online experiment with N= 988 subjects and 20 fake news from the COVID-19 pandemic generated by GPT-4 vs. humans. Our findings show that AI-generated fake news is perceived as less accurate than human-generated fake news, but both tend to be shared equally. Further, several socio-economic factors explain who falls for AI-generated fake news.

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was accompanied by a large-scale, pro-Russian propaganda campaign on social media. However, the strategy behind the dissemination of propaganda has remained unclear, particularly how the online discourse was strategically shaped by the propagandists' community. Here, we analyze the strategy of the Twitter community using an inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) approach. Specifically, IRL allows us to model online behavior as a Markov decision process, where the goal is to infer the underlying reward structure that guides propagandists when interacting with users with a supporting or opposing stance toward the invasion. Thereby, we aim to understand empirically whether and how between-user interactions are strategically used to promote the proliferation of Russian propaganda. For this, we leverage a large-scale dataset with 349,455 posts with pro-Russian propaganda from 132,131 users. We show that bots and humans follow a different strategy: bots respond predominantly to pro-invasion messages, suggesting that they seek to drive virality; while messages indicating opposition primarily elicit responses from humans, suggesting that they tend to engage in critical discussions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing the strategy behind propaganda from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine through the lens of IRL.

Investors are continuously seeking profitable investment opportunities in startups and, hence, for effective decision-making, need to predict a startup’s probability of success. Nowadays, investors can use not only various fundamental information about a startup (e.g., the age of the startup, the number of founders, and the business sector) but also textual description of a startup’s innovation and business model, which is widely available through online venture capital (VC) platforms such as Crunchbase. To support the decision-making of investors, we develop a machine learning approach with the aim of locating successful startups on VC platforms. Specifically, we develop, train, and evaluate a tailored, fused large language model to predict startup success. Thereby, we assess to what extent self-descriptions on VC platforms are predictive of startup success. Using 20,172 online profiles from Crunchbase, we find that our fused large language model can predict startup success, with textual self-descriptions being responsible for a significant part of the predictive power. Our work provides a decision support tool for investors to find profitable investment opportunities.

Political advertising on social media has become a central element in election campaigns. However, granular information about political advertising on social media was previously unavailable, thus raising concerns regarding fairness, accountability, and transparency in the electoral process. In this article, we analyze targeted political advertising on social media via a unique, large-scale dataset of over 80,000 political ads from Meta during the 2021 German federal election, with more than billion impressions. For each political ad, our dataset records granular information about targeting strategies, spending, and actual impressions. We then study (i) the prevalence of targeted ads across the political spectrum; (ii) the discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences due to algorithmic ad delivery; and (iii) which targeting strategies on social media attain a wide reach at low cost. We find that targeted ads are prevalent across the entire political spectrum. Moreover, there are considerable discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences, and systematic differences in the reach of political ads (in impressions-per-EUR) among parties, where the algorithm favor ads from populists over others.

Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA, a neural framework for generalized causal sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous work, our framework is compatible with (i) a large class of sensitivity models, including the marginal sensitivity model, -sensitivity models, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity model; (ii) different treatment types (i.e., binary and continuous); and (iii) different causal queries, including (conditional) average treatment effects and simultaneous effects on multiple outcomes. This generality is achieved by learning a latent distribution shift that corresponds to a treatment intervention using two conditional normalizing flows. We provide theoretical guarantees that NeuralCSA is able to infer valid bounds on the causal query of interest and also demonstrate this empirically using both simulated and real-world data.

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic refutation framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATE is non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose a neural refutation framework which performs partial identification of CATE or, equivalently, aims at estimating lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our refutation framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

Fairness of machine learning predictions is widely required in practice for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. Existing work typically focuses on settings without unobserved confounding, even though unobserved confounding can lead to severe violations of causal fairness and, thus, unfair predictions. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of causal fairness to unobserved confounding. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive bounds for causal fairness metrics under different sources of unobserved confounding. This enables practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their machine learning models to unobserved confounding in fairness-critical applications. Second, we propose a novel neural framework for learning fair predictions, which allows us to offer worst-case guarantees of the extent to which causal fairness can be violated due to unobserved confounding. Third, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in a series of experiments, including a real-world case study about predicting prison sentences. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to study causal fairness under unobserved confounding. To this end, our work is of direct practical value as a refutation strategy to ensure the fairness of predictions in high-stakes applications.

Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for estimating individualized treatment effects, so that clinical decision-making can be personalized to individual patient profiles. Causal ML can be used in combination with both clinical trial data and real-world data, such as clinical registries and electronic health records, but caution is needed to avoid biased or incorrect predictions. In this Perspective, we discuss the benefits of causal ML (relative to traditional statistical or ML approaches) and outline the key components and steps. Finally, we provide recommendations for the reliable use of causal ML and effective translation into the clinic.

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) from observational data is relevant in many fields such as personalized medicine. However, in practice, the treatment assignment is usually confounded by unobserved variables and thus introduces bias. A remedy to remove the bias is the use of instrumental variables (IVs). Such settings are widespread in medicine (e.g., trials where the treatment assignment is used as binary IV). In this paper, we propose a novel, multiply robust machine learning framework, called MRIV, for estimating CATEs using binary IVs and thus yield an unbiased CATE estimator. Different from previous work for binary IVs, our framework estimates the CATE directly via a pseudo outcome regression. (1)~We provide a theoretical analysis where we show that our framework yields multiple robust convergence rates: our CATE estimator achieves fast convergence even if several nuisance estimators converge slowly. (2)~We further show that our framework asymptotically outperforms state-of-the-art plug-in IV methods for CATE estimation, in the sense that it achieves a faster rate of convergence if the CATE is smoother than the individual outcome surfaces. (3)~We build upon our theoretical results and propose a tailored deep neural network architecture called MRIV-Net for CATE estimation using binary IVs. Across various computational experiments, we demonstrate empirically that our MRIV-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance. To the best of our knowledge, our MRIV is the first multiply robust machine learning framework tailored to estimating CATEs in the binary IV setting.

Open-source journalism emerged as a new phenomenon in the media ecosystem, which uses crowdsourcing to fact-check and generate investigative reports for world events using open sources (e.g., social media). A particularly prominent example is Bellingcat. Bellingcat is known for its investigations on the illegal use of chemical weapons during the Syrian war, the Russian responsibility for downing flight MH17, the identification of the perpetrators in the attempted murder of Alexei Navalny, and war crimes in the Russo-Ukraine war. Crucial for this is social media in order to disseminate findings and crowdsource fact-checks. In this work, we characterize the social media activities at Bellingcat on Twitter. For this, we built a comprehensive dataset of all N=24,682 tweets posted by Bellingcat on Twitter since its inception in July 2014. Our analysis is three-fold: (1) We analyze how Bellingcat uses Twitter to disseminate information and collect information from its follower base. Here, we find a steady increase in both posts and replies over time, particularly during the Russo-Ukrainian war, which is in line with the growing importance of Bellingcat for the traditional media ecosystem. (2) We identify characteristics of posts that are successful in eliciting user engagement. User engagement is particularly large for posts embedding additional media items and with a more negative sentiment. (3) We examine how the follower base has responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Here, we find that the sentiment has become more polarized and negative. We attribute this to a ~13-fold increase in bots interacting with the Bellingcat account. Overall, our findings provide recommendations for how open-source journalism such as Bellingcat can successfully operate on social media.

In medical practice, treatments are selected based on the ex- pected causal effects on patient outcomes. Here, the gold standard for estimating causal effects are randomized con- trolled trials; however, such trials are costly and sometimes even unethical. Instead, medical practice is increasingly interested in estimating causal effects among patient (sub)groups from electronic health records, that is, observational data. In this paper, we aim at estimating the average causal effect (ACE) from observational data (patient trajectories) that are collected over time. For this, we propose DeepACE: an end-to-end deep learning model. DeepACE leverages the iterative G-computation formula to adjust for the bias induced by time-varying confounders. Moreover, we develop a novel sequential targeting procedure which ensures that DeepACE has favorable theoretical properties, i. e., is doubly robust and asymptotically efficient. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that proposes an end-to-end deep learning model tailored for estimating time-varying ACEs. We com- pare DeepACE in an extensive number of experiments, confirming that it achieves state-of-the-art performance. We further provide a case study for patients suffering from low back pain to demonstrate that DeepACE generates important and meaningful findings for clinical practice. Our work enables practitioners to develop effective treatment recommendations based on population effects.