10.07.2025

Beyond Prediction: How Causal AI Enables Better Decision-Making - With Stefan Feuerriegel

Research Film

"A good prediction is rarely a good decision." This may sound surprising in an age where AI is often celebrated for its predictive power. But when it comes to making real-world decisions — especially in complex environments like business or healthcare — prediction alone doesn’t cut it. What we need is AI that can help us choose what to do, not just tell us what might happen.

That’s the power of causal machine learning. Instead of forecasting outcomes in general, it predicts what will happen under specific decisions — whether it’s choosing one business strategy over another or selecting the right medical treatment.

As Stefan Feuerriegel, Professor at LMU Munich and MCML PI, puts it: “Decision-makers don’t need one crystal ball, but two — one for each possible action”. Only then can they choose what truly works best.