Research Group Christian Müller

Many scientific datasets are compositional in nature. Important biological examples include species abundances in ecology, cell-type compositions derived from single-cell sequencing data, and amplicon abundance data in microbiome research. Here, we provide a causal view on compositional data in an instrumental variable setting where the composition acts as the cause. First, we crisply articulate potential pitfalls for practitioners regarding the interpretation of compositional causes from the viewpoint of interventions and warn against attributing causal meaning to common summary statistics such as diversity indices in microbiome data analysis. We then advocate for and develop multivariate methods using statistical data transformations and regression techniques that take the special structure of the compositional sample space into account while still yielding scientifically interpretable results. In a comparative analysis on synthetic and real microbiome data we show the advantages and limitations of our proposal. We posit that our analysis provides a useful framework and guidance for valid and informative cause-effect estimation in the context of compositional data.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) enable learning from various data modalities, such as images or text. This concept has also found its way into statistical modelling through the use of semi-structured regression, a model additively combining structured predictors with unstructured effects from arbitrary data modalities learned through a DNN. This paper introduces a new framework called sparse modality regression (SMR). SMR is a regression model combining different data modalities and uses a group lasso-type regularization approach to perform modality selection by zeroing out potentially uninformative modalities.

We present a framework for smooth optimization of explicitly regularized objectives for (structured) sparsity. These non-smooth and possibly non-convex problems typically rely on solvers tailored to specific models and regularizers. In contrast, our method enables fully differentiable and approximation-free optimization and is thus compatible with the ubiquitous gradient descent paradigm in deep learning. The proposed optimization transfer comprises an overparameterization of selected parameters and a change of penalties. In the overparametrized problem, smooth surrogate regularization induces non-smooth, sparse regularization in the base parametrization. We prove that the surrogate objective is equivalent in the sense that it not only has identical global minima but also matching local minima, thereby avoiding the introduction of spurious solutions. Additionally, our theory establishes results of independent interest regarding matching local minima for arbitrary, potentially unregularized, objectives. We comprehensively review sparsity-inducing parametrizations across different fields that are covered by our general theory, extend their scope, and propose improvements in several aspects. Numerical experiments further demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of our approach on several sparse learning problems ranging from high-dimensional regression to sparse neural network training.

In recent years, unsupervised analysis of microbiome data, such as microbial network analysis and clustering, has increased in popularity. Many new statistical and computational methods have been proposed for these tasks. This multiplicity of analysis strategies poses a challenge for researchers, who are often unsure which method(s) to use and might be tempted to try different methods on their dataset to look for the “best” ones. However, if only the best results are selectively reported, this may cause over-optimism: the “best” method is overly fitted to the specific dataset, and the results might be non-replicable on validation data. Such effects will ultimately hinder research progress. Yet so far, these topics have been given little attention in the context of unsupervised microbiome analysis. In our illustrative study, we aim to quantify over-optimism effects in this context. We model the approach of a hypothetical microbiome researcher who undertakes four unsupervised research tasks: clustering of bacterial genera, hub detection in microbial networks, differential microbial network analysis, and clustering of samples. While these tasks are unsupervised, the researcher might still have certain expectations as to what constitutes interesting results. We translate these expectations into concrete evaluation criteria that the hypothetical researcher might want to optimize. We then randomly split an exemplary dataset from the American Gut Project into discovery and validation sets multiple times. For each research task, multiple method combinations (e.g., methods for data normalization, network generation, and/or clustering) are tried on the discovery data, and the combination that yields the best result according to the evaluation criterion is chosen. While the hypothetical researcher might only report this result, we also apply the “best” method combination to the validation dataset. The results are then compared between discovery and validation data. In all four research tasks, there are notable over-optimism effects; the results on the validation data set are worse compared to the discovery data, averaged over multiple random splits into discovery/validation data. Our study thus highlights the importance of validation and replication in microbiome analysis to obtain reliable results and demonstrates that the issue of over-optimism goes beyond the context of statistical testing and fishing for significance.

Recommender Systems (RS) pervade many aspects of our everyday digital life. Proposed to work at scale, state-of-the-art RS allow the modeling of thousands of interactions and facilitate highly individualized recommendations. Conceptually, many RS can be viewed as instances of statistical regression models that incorporate complex feature effects and potentially non-Gaussian outcomes. Such structured regression models, including time-aware varying coefficients models, are, however, limited in their applicability to categorical effects and inclusion of a large number of interactions. Here, we propose Factorized Structured Regression (FaStR) for scalable varying coefficient models. FaStR overcomes limitations of general regression models for large-scale data by combining structured additive regression and factorization approaches in a neural network-based model implementation. This fusion provides a scalable framework for the estimation of statistical models in previously infeasible data settings. Empirical results confirm that the estimation of varying coefficients of our approach is on par with state-of-the-art regression techniques, while scaling notably better and also being competitive with other time-aware RS in terms of prediction performance. We illustrate FaStR’s performance and interpretability on a large-scale behavioral study with smartphone user data.

Computational reproducibility is a corner stone for sound and credible research. Especially in complex statistical analyses—such as the analysis of longitudinal data—reproducing results is far from simple, especially if no source code is available. In this work we aimed to reproduce analyses of longitudinal data of 11 articles published in PLOS ONE. Inclusion criteria were the availability of data and author consent. We investigated the types of methods and software used and whether we were able to reproduce the data analysis using open source software. Most articles provided overview tables and simple visualisations. Generalised Estimating Equations (GEEs) were the most popular statistical models among the selected articles. Only one article used open source software and only one published part of the analysis code. Replication was difficult in most cases and required reverse engineering of results or contacting the authors. For three articles we were not able to reproduce the results, for another two only parts of them. For all but two articles we had to contact the authors to be able to reproduce the results. Our main learning is that reproducing papers is difficult if no code is supplied and leads to a high burden for those conducting the reproductions. Open data policies in journals are good, but to truly boost reproducibility we suggest adding open code policies.

Obtaining labels for medical (image) data requires scarce and expensive experts. Moreover, due to ambiguous symptoms, single images rarely suffice to correctly diagnose a medical condition. Instead, it often requires to take additional background information such as the patient’s medical history or test results into account. Hence, instead of focusing on uninterpretable black-box systems delivering an uncertain final diagnosis in an end-to-end-fashion, we investigate how unsupervised methods trained on images without anomalies can be used to assist doctors in evaluating X-ray images of hands. Our method increases the efficiency of making a diagnosis and reduces the risk of missing important regions. Therefore, we adopt state-of-the-art approaches for unsupervised learning to detect anomalies and show how the outputs of these methods can be explained. To reduce the effect of noise, which often can be mistaken for an anomaly, we introduce a powerful preprocessing pipeline. We provide an extensive evaluation of different approaches and demonstrate empirically that even without labels it is possible to achieve satisfying results on a real-world dataset of X-ray images of hands. We also evaluate the importance of preprocessing and one of our main findings is that without it, most of our approaches perform not better than random.