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LLM-Driven Treatment Effect Estimation Under Inference Time Text Confounding

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Stefan Feuerriegel

Prof. Dr.

Principal Investigator

Artificial Intelligence in Management

Abstract

Estimating treatment effects is crucial for personalized decision-making in medicine, but this task faces unique challenges in clinical practice. At training time, models for estimating treatment effects are typically trained on well-structured medical datasets that contain detailed patient information. However, at inference time, predictions are often made using textual descriptions (e.g., descriptions with self-reported symptoms), which are incomplete representations of the original patient information. In this work, we make three contributions. (1) We show that the discrepancy between the data available during training time and inference time can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects. We formalize this issue as an inference time text confounding problem, where confounders are fully observed during training time but only partially available through text at inference time. (2) To address this problem, we propose a novel framework for estimating treatment effects that explicitly accounts for inference time text confounding. Our framework leverages large language models together with a custom doubly robust learner to mitigate biases caused by the inference time text confounding. (3) Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in real-world applications.

inproceedings

NeurIPS 2025

39th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems. San Diego, CA, USA, Nov 30-Dec 07, 2025. To be published. Preprint available.
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A* Conference

Authors

Y. Ma • D. Frauen • J. Schweisthal • S. Feuerriegel

Links

arXiv

Research Area

 A1 | Statistical Foundations & Explainability

BibTeXKey: MFS+25a

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