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On Training Survival Models With Scoring Rules

MCML Authors

David Rügamer

Prof. Dr.

Principal Investigator

Statistics, Data Science and Machine Learning

Bernd Bischl

Prof. Dr.

Director

Statistical Learning and Data Science

Andreas Bender

Dr.

→ Group Bernd Bischl
Statistical Learning and Data Science

Abstract

Survival Analysis provides critical insights for partially incomplete time-to-event data in various domains. It is also an important example of probabilistic machine learning. The probabilistic nature of the predictions can be exploited by using (proper) scoring rules in the model fitting process instead of likelihood-based optimization. Our proposal does so in a generic manner and can be used for a variety of model classes. We establish different parametric and non-parametric sub-frameworks that allow different degrees of flexibility. Incorporated into neural networks, it leads to a computationally efficient and scalable optimization routine, yielding state-of-the-art predictive performance. Finally, we show that using our framework, we can recover various parametric models and demonstrate that optimization works equally well when compared to likelihood-based methods.

inproceedings