Machine Learning Consulting Unit

We present a flexible modelling approach to analyse time-varying exposures and recurrent events in team sports injuries. The approach is based on the piece-wise exponential additive mixed model where the effects of past exposures (i.e. high-intensity training loads) may accumulate over time and present complex forms of association. In order to identify a relevant time window at which past exposures have an impact on the current risk, we propose a penalty approach. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed model, under different true weight functions and different levels of heterogeneity between recurrent events. Finally, we illustrate the approach with a case study application involving an elite male football team participating in the Spanish LaLiga competition. The cohort includes time-loss injuries and external training load variables tracked by Global Positioning System devices, during the seasons 2017–2018 and 2018–2019.

In this multi-center study, we proposed a structured reporting (SR) framework for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and developed a software-assisted tool to automatically translate image-based findings and annotations into TNM classifications. The aim of this study was to validate the software-assisted SR tool for NSCLC, assess its potential clinical impact in a proof-of-concept study, and evaluate current reporting standards in participating institutions.

Hintergrund: Die medizinische Codierung von radiologischen Befunden ist essenziell für eine gute Qualität der Versorgung und die korrekte Abrechnung, gleichzeitig aber eine aufwändige und fehleranfällige Aufgabe.
Ziel der Arbeit: Bewertung der Anwendbarkeit natürlicher Sprachverarbeitung (Natural Language Processing, NLP) für die ICD-10-Codierung von radiologischen Befunden in deutscher Sprache durch Finetuning geeigneter Sprachmodelle.
Material und Methoden: In dieser retrospektiven Studie wurden alle Magnetresonanztomographie(MRT)-Befunde unseres Instituts zwischen 2010 und 2020 berücksichtigt. Die ICD-10-Codes bei Entlassung wurden den jeweiligen Befunden zugeordnet, um einen Datensatz für eine Multiclass-Klassifizierung zu erstellen. Finetuning von GermanBERT und flanT5 wurde auf dem Gesamtdatensatz (dstotal) mit 1035 verschiedenen ICD-10-Codes und zwei reduzierten Datensätzen mit den 100 (ds100) und 50 (ds50) häufigsten Codes durchgeführt. Die Performance der Modelle wurde mit Top-k-Genauigkeit für k = 1, 3, 5 evaluiert. In einer Ablationsstudie wurden beide Modelle einmal auf den zugehörigen Metadaten und dem Befund allein trainiert.
Ergebnisse: Der Gesamtdatensatz bestand aus 100.672 radiologischen Befunden, die reduzierten Datensätze ds100 aus 68.103 und ds50 aus 52.293 Berichten. Die Modellperformance stieg, wenn mehrere der besten Voraussagen des Modells in Betracht gezogen wurden, die Anzahl der Zielklassen reduziert wurde und die Metadaten mit dem Befund kombiniert wurden. FlanT5 übertraf GermanBERT in allen Datensätzen und Metriken und eignet sich am besten als medizinischer Codierungsassistent, wobei eine Top-3-Genauigkeit von fast 70% im realitätsnahen Datensatz dstotal erreicht wurde.
Schlussfolgerung: Finetuning von Sprachmodellen verspricht eine zuverlässige Vorhersage von ICD-10-Codes deutscher radiologischer MRT-Befunde in unterschiedlichen Szenarien. Als Codierungsassistent kann flanT5 medizinischen Codierern helfen, informierte Entscheidungen zu treffen und potenziell ihre Arbeitsbelastung reduzieren.

Radiation-induced pneumonitis (RP), diagnosed 6–12 weeks after treatment, is a complication of lung tumor radiotherapy. So far, clinical and dosimetric parameters have not been reliable in predicting RP. We propose using non-contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based functional parameters acquired over the treatment course for patient stratification for improved follow-up.

Objectives: This randomized clinical trial focused on patients with thin peri-implant soft-tissue height (STH) (≤ 2.5 mm) and investigated the impact of an allogenic collagen scaffold (aCS) on supracrestal tissue height and marginal bone loss (MBL).
Material & methods: Forty patients received bone level implants and were randomly assigned to the test group with simultaneous tissue thickening with aCS or the control group. After three months, prosthetic restoration occurred. STH measurements were taken at baseline (T0) and reopening surgery (TR), with MBL assessed at 12 months (T1). Descriptive statistics were calculated for continuous variables, and counts for categorical variables (significance level, p = 0.05).
Results: At T1, 37 patients were available. At T0, control and test groups had mean STH values of 2.3 ± 0.3 mm and 2.1 ± 0.4 mm. TR revealed mean STH values of 2.3 ± 0.2 mm (control) and 2.6 ± 0.7 mm (test), with a significant tissue thickening of 0.5 ± 0.6 mm in the test group (p < 0.03). At T1, control and test groups showed MBL mean values of 1.1 ± 0.8 mm and 1.0 ± 0.6 mm, with a moderate but significant correlation with STH thickening (-0.34), implant position (0.43), history of periodontitis (0.39), and smoking status (0.27).
Conclusion: The use of an aCS protocol resulted in soft tissue thickening but did not reach a threshold to reliably reduce MBL compared to the control group within the study’s limitations.
Clinical relevance: Peri-implant STH is crucial for maintaining peri-implant marginal bone stability. Marginal bone stability represents a crucial factor in prevention of peri-implantitis development.

Little is known about the time-varying determinants of kidney graft failure in children. We performed a retrospective study of primary pediatric kidney transplant recipients (younger than 18 years) from the Eurotransplant registry (1990-2020). Piece-wise exponential additive mixed models were applied to analyze time-varying recipient, donor, and transplant risk factors. Primary outcome was death-censored graft failure.

The association between protein intake and the need for mechanical ventilation (MV) is controversial. We aimed to investigate the associations between protein intake and outcomes in ventilated critically ill patients.

Building prediction models using biomechanical features is challenging because such models may require large sample sizes. However, collecting biomechanical data on large sample sizes is logistically very challenging. This study aims to investigate if modern machine learning algorithms can help overcome the issue of limited sample sizes on developing prediction models. This was a secondary data analysis two biomechanical datasets – a walking dataset on 2295 participants, and a countermovement jump dataset on 31 participants. The input features were the three-dimensional ground reaction forces (GRFs) of the lower limbs. The outcome was the orthopaedic disease category (healthy, calcaneus, ankle, knee, hip) in the walking dataset, and healthy vs people with patellofemoral pain syndrome in the jump dataset. Different algorithms were compared: multinomial/LASSO regression, XGBoost, various deep learning time-series algorithms with augmented data, and with transfer learning. For the outcome of weighted multiclass area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) in the walking dataset, the three models with the best performance were InceptionTime with x12 augmented data (0.810), XGBoost (0.804), and multinomial logistic regression (0.800). For the jump dataset, the top three models with the highest AUC were the LASSO (1.00), InceptionTime with x8 augmentation (0.750), and transfer learning (0.653). Machine-learning based strategies for managing the challenging issue of limited sample size for biomechanical ML-based problems, could benefit the development of alternative prediction models in healthcare, especially when time-series data are involved.

Background: Stabilisation of the centre of mass (COM) trajectory is thought to be important during running. There is emerging evidence of the importance of leg length and angle regulation during running, which could contribute to stability in the COM trajectory The present study aimed to understand if leg length and angle stabilises the vertical and anterior-posterior (AP) COM displacements, and if the stability alters with running speeds.
Methods: Data for this study came from an open-source treadmill running dataset (n = 28). Leg length (m) was calculated by taking the resultant distance of the two-dimensional sagittal plane leg vector (from pelvis segment to centre of pressure). Leg angle was defined by the angle subtended between the leg vector and the horizontal surface. Leg length and angle were scaled to a standard deviation of one. Uncontrolled manifold analysis (UCM) was used to provide an index of motor abundance (IMA) in the stabilisation of the vertical and AP COM displacement.
Results: IMAAP and IMAvertical were largely destabilising and always stabilising, respectively. As speed increased, the peak destabilising effect on IMAAP increased from −0.66(0.18) at 2.5 m/s to −1.12(0.18) at 4.5 m/s, and the peak stabilising effect on IMAvertical increased from 0.69 (0.19) at 2.5 m/s to 1.18 (0.18) at 4.5 m/s.
Conclusion: Two simple parameters from a simple spring-mass model, leg length and angle, can explain the control behind running. The variability in leg length and angle helped stabilise the vertical COM, whilst maintaining constant running speed may rely more on inter-limb variation to adjust the horizontal COM accelerations.

Undersampling is a common method in Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to subsample the number of data points in k-space, reducing acquisition times at the cost of decreased image quality. A popular approach is to employ undersampling patterns following various strategies, e.g., variable density sampling or radial trajectories. In this work, we propose a method that directly learns the under-sampling masks from data points, thereby also providing task- and domain-specific patterns. To solve the resulting discrete optimization problem, we propose a general optimization routine called ProM: A fully probabilistic, differentiable, versatile, and model-free framework for mask optimization that enforces acceleration factors through a convex constraint. Analyzing knee, brain, and cardiac MRI datasets with our method, we discover that different anatomic regions reveal distinct optimal undersampling masks, demonstrating the benefits of using custom masks, tailored for a downstream task. For example, ProM can create undersampling masks that maximize performance in downstream tasks like segmentation with networks trained on fully-sampled MRIs. Even with extreme acceleration factors, ProM yields reasonable performance while being more versatile than existing methods, paving the way for data-driven all-purpose mask generation

Functional data analysis (FDA) is a statistical framework that allows for the analysis of curves, images, or functions on higher dimensional domains. The goals of FDA, such as descriptive analyses, classification, and regression, are generally the same as for statistical analyses of scalar-valued or multivariate data, but FDA brings additional challenges due to the high- and infinite dimensionality of observations and parameters, respectively. This paper provides an introduction to FDA, including a description of the most common statistical analysis techniques, their respective software implementations, and some recent developments in the field. The paper covers fundamental concepts such as descriptives and outliers, smoothing, amplitude and phase variation, and functional principal component analysis. It also discusses functional regression, statistical inference with functional data, functional classification and clustering, and machine learning approaches for functional data analysis. The methods discussed in this paper are widely applicable in fields such as medicine, biophysics, neuroscience, and chemistry, and are increasingly relevant due to the widespread use of technologies that allow for the collection of functional data. Sparse functional data methods are also relevant for longitudinal data analysis. All presented methods are demonstrated using available software in R by analyzing a data set on human motion and motor control. To facilitate the understanding of the methods, their implementation, and hands-on application, the code for these practical examples is made available on Github.

Wildlife camera trap images are being used extensively to investigate animal abundance, habitat associations, and behavior, which is complicated by the fact that experts must first classify the images to retrieve relevant information. Artificial intelligence systems can take over this task but usually need a large number of already-labeled training images to achieve sufficient performance. This requirement necessitates human expert labor and poses a particular challenge for projects with few cameras or short durations. We propose a label-efficient learning strategy that enables researchers with small or medium-sized image databases to leverage the potential of modern machine learning, thus freeing crucial resources for subsequent analyses. Our methodological proposal is twofold: On the one hand, we improve current strategies of combining object detection and image classification by tuning the hyperparameters of both models. On the other hand, we provide an active learning system that allows training deep learning models very efficiently in terms of required manually labeled training images. We supply a software package that enables researchers to use these methods without specific programming skills and thereby ensure the broad applicability of the proposed framework in ecological practice. We show that our tuning strategy improves predictive performance, emphasizing that tuning can and must be done separately for a new data set. We demonstrate how the active learning pipeline reduces the amount of pre-labeled data needed to achieve specific predictive performance and that it is especially valuable for improving out-of-sample predictive performance. We conclude that the combination of tuning and active learning increases the predictive performance of automated image classifiers substantially. Furthermore, we argue that our work can broadly impact the community through the ready-to-use software package provided. Finally, the publication of our models tailored to European wildlife data enriches existing model bases mostly trained on data from Africa and North America.

Purpose: To analyze and remove protected feature effects in chest radiograph embeddings of deep learning models. Methods: An orthogonalization is utilized to remove the influence of protected features (e.g., age, sex, race) in CXR embeddings, ensuring feature-independent results. To validate the efficacy of the approach, we retrospectively study the MIMIC and CheXpert datasets using three pre-trained models, namely a supervised contrastive, a self-supervised contrastive, and a baseline classifier model. Our statistical analysis involves comparing the original versus the orthogonalized embeddings by estimating protected feature influences and evaluating the ability to predict race, age, or sex using the two types of embeddings. Results: Our experiments reveal a significant influence of protected features on predictions of pathologies. Applying orthogonalization removes these feature effects. Apart from removing any influence on pathology classification, while maintaining competitive predictive performance, orthogonalized embeddings further make it infeasible to directly predict protected attributes and mitigate subgroup disparities. Conclusion: The presented work demonstrates the successful application and evaluation of the orthogonalization technique in the domain of chest X-ray image classification.

This study aims to compare the variable selection strategies of different machine learning (ML) and statistical algorithms in the prognosis of neck pain (NP) recovery. A total of 3001 participants with NP were included. Three dichotomous outcomes of an improvement in NP, arm pain (AP), and disability at 3 months follow-up were used. Twenty-five variables (twenty-eight parameters) were included as predictors. There were more parameters than variables, as some categorical variables had >2 levels. Eight modelling techniques were compared: stepwise regression based on unadjusted p values (stepP), on adjusted p values (stepPAdj), on Akaike information criterion (stepAIC), best subset regression (BestSubset) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO], Minimax concave penalty (MCP), model-based boosting (mboost), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MuARS). The algorithm that selected the fewest predictors was stepPAdj (number of predictors, p = 4 to 8). MuARS was the algorithm with the second fewest predictors selected (p = 9 to 14). The predictor selected by all algorithms with the largest coefficient magnitude was “having undergone a neuroreflexotherapy intervention” for NP (β = from 1.987 to 2.296) and AP (β = from 2.639 to 3.554), and “Imaging findings: spinal stenosis” (β = from −1.331 to −1.763) for disability. Stepwise regression based on adjusted p-values resulted in the sparsest models, which enhanced clinical interpretability. MuARS appears to provide the optimal balance between model sparsity whilst retaining high predictive performance across outcomes. Different algorithms produced similar performances but resulted in a different number of variables selected. Rather than relying on any single algorithm, confidence in the variable selection may be increased by using multiple algorithms.

Cross-modal representation learning learns a shared embedding between two or more modalities to improve performance in a given task compared to using only one of the modalities. Cross-modal representation learning from different data types - such as images and time-series data (e.g., audio or text data) – requires a deep metric learning loss that minimizes the distance between the modality embeddings. In this paper, we propose to use the contrastive or triplet loss, which uses positive and negative identities to create sample pairs with different labels, for cross-modal representation learning between image and time-series modalities (CMR-IS). By adapting the triplet loss for cross-modal representation learning, higher accuracy in the main (time-series classification) task can be achieved by exploiting additional information of the auxiliary (image classification) task. We present a triplet loss with a dynamic margin for single label and sequence-to-sequence classification tasks. We perform extensive evaluations on synthetic image and time-series data, and on data for offline handwriting recognition (HWR) and on online HWR from sensor-enhanced pens for classifying written words. Our experiments show an improved classification accuracy, faster convergence, and better generalizability due to an improved cross-modal representation. Furthermore, the more suitable generalizability leads to a better adaptability between writers for online HWR.

Alterations in joint contact forces (JCFs) are thought to be important mechanisms for the onset and progression of many musculoskeletal and orthopaedic pain disorders. Computational approaches to JCFs assessment represent the only non-invasive means of estimating in-vivo forces; but this cannot be undertaken in free-living environments. Here, we used deep neural networks to train models to predict JCFs, using only joint angles as predictors. Our neural network models were generally able to predict JCFs with errors within published minimal detectable change values. The errors ranged from the lowest value of 0.03 bodyweight (BW) (ankle medial-lateral JCF in walking) to a maximum of 0.65BW (knee VT JCF in running). Interestingly, we also found that over parametrised neural networks by training on longer epochs (>100) resulted in better and smoother waveform predictions. Our methods for predicting JCFs using only joint kinematics hold a lot of promise in allowing clinicians and coaches to continuously monitor tissue loading in free-living environments.

Multivariate time series measurements in plasma diagnostics present several challenges when training machine learning models: the availability of only a few labeled data increases the risk of overfitting, and missing data points or outliers due to sensor failures pose additional difficulties. To overcome these issues, we introduce a fast and robust regression model that enables imputation of missing points and data augmentation by massive sampling while exploiting the inherent correlation between input signals. The underlying Student-t process allows for a noise distribution with heavy tails and thus produces robust results in the case of outliers. We consider the state space form of the Student-t process, which reduces the computational complexity and makes the model suitable for high-resolution time series. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method using two test cases, one of which was inspired by measurements of flux loop signals.

Epitope vaccines are a promising direction to enable precision treatment for cancer, autoimmune diseases, and allergies. Effectively designing such vaccines requires accurate prediction of proteasomal cleavage in order to ensure that the epitopes in the vaccine are presented to T cells by the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). While direct identification of proteasomal cleavage in vitro is cumbersome and low throughput, it is possible to implicitly infer cleavage events from the termini of MHC-presented epitopes, which can be detected in large amounts thanks to recent advances in high-throughput MHC ligandomics. Inferring cleavage events in such a way provides an inherently noisy signal which can be tackled with new developments in the field of deep learning that supposedly make it possible to learn predictors from noisy labels. Inspired by such innovations, we sought to modernize proteasomal cleavage predictors by benchmarking a wide range of recent methods, including LSTMs, transformers, CNNs, and denoising methods, on a recently introduced cleavage dataset. We found that increasing model scale and complexity appeared to deliver limited performance gains, as several methods reached about 88.5% AUC on C-terminal and 79.5% AUC on N-terminal cleavage prediction. This suggests that the noise and/or complexity of proteasomal cleavage and the subsequent biological processes of the antigen processing pathway are the major limiting factors for predictive performance rather than the specific modeling approach used. While biological complexity can be tackled by more data and better models, noise and randomness inherently limit the maximum achievable predictive performance.

Despite huge advances in local and systemic therapies, the 5-year relative survival rate for patients with metastatic CRC is still low. To avoid over- or undertreatment, proper risk stratification with regard to treatment strategy is highly needed. As EMT (epithelial-mesenchymal transition) is a major step in metastatic spread, this study analysed the prognostic effect of EMT-related genes in stage IV colorectal cancer patients using the study cohort of the FIRE-3 trial, an open-label multi-centre randomised controlled phase III trial of stage IV colorectal cancer patients. Overall, the prognostic relevance of EMT-related genes seems stage-dependent. EMT-related genes have no prognostic relevance in stage IV CRC as opposed to stage II/III.

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student $t$ process regression. We apply Student $t$ process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

Rain type classification into convective and stratiform is an essential step required to improve quantitative precipitation estimations by remote sensing instruments. Previous studies with Micro Rain Radar (MRR) measurements and subjective rules have been performed to classify rain events. However, automating this process by using machine learning (ML) models provides the advantages of fast and reliable classification with the possibility to classify rain minute by minute. A total of 20,979 min of rain data measured by an MRR at Das in northeast Spain were used to build seven types of ML models for stratiform and convective rain type classification. The proposed classification models use a set of 22 parameters that summarize the reflectivity, the Doppler velocity, and the spectral width (SW) above and below the so-called separation level (SL). This level is defined as the level with the highest increase in Doppler velocity and corresponds with the bright band in stratiform rain. A pre-classification of the rain type for each minute based on the rain microstructure provided by the collocated disdrometer was performed. Our results indicate that complex ML models, particularly tree-based ensembles such as xgboost and random forest which capture the interactions of different features, perform better than simpler models. Applying methods from the field of interpretable ML, we identified reflectivity at the lowest layer and the average spectral width in the layers below SL as the most important features. High reflectivity and low SW values indicate a higher probability of convective rain.

High- and low pressure systems of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes drive European weather and climate. Potential future changes in the occurrence of circulation types are highly relevant for society. Classifying the highly dynamic atmospheric circulation into discrete classes of circulation types helps to categorize the linkages between atmospheric forcing and surface conditions (e.g. extreme events). Previous studies have revealed a high internal variability of projected changes of circulation types. Dealing with this high internal variability requires the employment of a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) and an automated classification method, which can be applied to large climate data sets. One of the most established classifications in Europe are the 29 subjective circulation types called Grosswetterlagen by Hess & Brezowsky (HB circulation types). We developed, in the first analysis of its kind, an automated version of this subjective classification using deep learning. Our classifier reaches an overall accuracy of 41.1% on the test sets of nested cross-validation. It outperforms the state-of-the-art automatization of the HB circulation types in 20 of the 29 classes. We apply the deep learning classifier to the SMHI-LENS, a SMILE of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, composed of 50 members of the EC-Earth3 model under the SSP37.0 scenario. For the analysis of future frequency changes of the 29 circulation types, we use the signal-to-noise ratio to discriminate the climate change signal from the noise of internal variability. Using a 5%-significance level, we find significant frequency changes in 69% of the circulation types when comparing the future (2071–2100) to a reference period (1991–2020).

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) classification is important in various applications such as signature verification, person identification, and motion recognition. In deep learning these classification tasks are usually learned using the cross-entropy loss. A related yet different task is predicting trajectories observed as MTS. Important use cases include handwriting reconstruction, shape analysis, and human pose estimation. The goal is to align an arbitrary dimensional time series with its ground truth as accurately as possible while reducing the error in the prediction with a distance loss and the variance with a similarity loss. Although learning both losses with Multi-Task Learning (MTL) helps to improve trajectory alignment, learning often remains difficult as both tasks are contradictory. We propose a novel neural network architecture for MTL that notably improves the MTS classification and trajectory regression performance in online handwriting (OnHW) recognition. We achieve this by jointly learning the cross-entropy loss in combination with distance and similarity losses. On an OnHW task of handwritten characters with multivariate inertial and visual data inputs we are able to achieve crucial improvements (lower error with less variance) of trajectory prediction while still improving the character classification accuracy in comparison to models trained on the individual tasks.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to threaten various regions around the world, obtaining accurate and reliable COVID-19 data is crucial for governments and local communities aiming at rigorously assessing the extent and magnitude of the virus spread and deploying efficient interventions. Using data reported between January and February 2020 in China, we compared counts of COVID-19 from near-real-time spatially disaggregated data (city level) with fine-spatial scale predictions from a Bayesian downscaling regression model applied to a reference province-level data set. The results highlight discrepancies in the counts of coronavirus-infected cases at the district level and identify districts that may require further investigation.

Deep learning excels in the analysis of unstructured data and recent advancements allow to extend these techniques to survival analysis. In the context of clinical radiology, this enables, e.g., to relate unstructured volumetric images to a risk score or a prognosis of life expectancy and support clinical decision making. Medical applications are, however, associated with high criticality and consequently, neither medical personnel nor patients do usually accept black box models as reason or basis for decisions. Apart from averseness to new technologies, this is due to missing interpretability, transparency and accountability of many machine learning methods. We propose a hazard-regularized variational autoencoder that supports straightforward interpretation of deep neural architectures in the context of survival analysis, a field highly relevant in healthcare. We apply the proposed approach to abdominal CT scans of patients with liver tumors and their corresponding survival times.

The application of deep learning in survival analysis (SA) allows utilizing unstructured and high-dimensional data types uncommon in traditional survival methods. This allows to advance methods in fields such as digital health, predictive maintenance, and churn analysis, but often yields less interpretable and intuitively understandable models due to the black-box character of deep learning-based approaches. We close this gap by proposing 1) a multi-task variational autoencoder (VAE) with survival objective, yielding survival-oriented embeddings, and 2) a novel method HazardWalk that allows to model hazard factors in the original data space. HazardWalk transforms the latent distribution of our autoencoder into areas of maximized/minimized hazard and then uses the decoder to project changes to the original domain. Our procedure is evaluated on a simulated dataset as well as on a dataset of CT imaging data of patients with liver metastases.

Europe was hit by several, disastrous heat and drought events in recent summers. Besides thermodynamic influences, such hot and dry extremes are driven by certain atmospheric situations including anticyclonic conditions. Effects of climate change on atmospheric circulations are complex and many open research questions remain in this context, e.g., on future trends of anticyclonic conditions. Based on the combination of a catalog of labeled circulation patterns and spatial atmospheric variables, we propose a smoothed convolutional neural network classifier for six types of anticyclonic circulations that are associated with drought and heat. Our work can help to identify important drivers of hot and dry extremes in climate simulations, which allows to unveil the impact of climate change on these drivers. We address various challenges inherent to circulation pattern classification that are also present in other climate patterns, e.g., subjective labels and unambiguous transition periods.

Background: Yttrium-90 radioembolization (RE) plays an important role in the treatment of liver malignancies. Optimal patient selection is crucial for an effective and safe treatment. In this study, we aim to validate the prognostic performance of a previously established random survival forest (RSF) with an external validation cohort from a different national center. Furthermore, we compare outcome prediction models with different established metrics. Methods: A previously established RSF model, trained on a consecutive cohort of 366 patients who had received RE due to primary or secondary liver tumor at a national center (center 1), was used to predict the outcome of an independent consecutive cohort of 202 patients from a different national center (center 2) and vice versa. Prognostic performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and the integrated Brier score (IBS). The prognostic importance of designated baseline parameters was measured with the minimal depth concept, and the influence on the predicted outcome was analyzed with accumulated local effects plots. RSF values were compared to conventional cox proportional hazards models in terms of C-index and IBS. Results: The established RSF model achieved a C-index of 0.67 for center 2, comparable to the results obtained for center 1, which it was trained on (0.66). The RSF model trained on center 2 achieved a C-index of 0.68 on center 2 data and 0.66 on center 1 data. CPH models showed comparable results on both cohorts, with C-index ranging from 0.68 to 0.72. IBS validation showed more differentiated results depending on which cohort was trained on and which cohort was predicted (range: 0.08 to 0.20). Baseline cholinesterase was the most important variable for survival prediction. Conclusion: The previously developed predictive RSF model was successfully validated with an independent external cohort. C-index and IBS are suitable metrics to compare outcome prediction models, with IBS showing more differentiated results. The findings corroborate that survival after RE is critically determined by functional hepatic reserve and thus baseline liver function should play a key role in patient selection.

Several thousand people die every year worldwide because of terrorist attacks perpetrated by non-state actors. In this context, reliable and accurate short-term predictions of non-state terrorism at the local level are key for policy makers to target preventative measures. Using only publicly available data, we show that predictive models that include structural and procedural predictors can accurately predict the occurrence of non-state terrorism locally and a week ahead in regions affected by a relatively high prevalence of terrorism. In these regions, theoretically informed models systematically outperform models using predictors built on past terrorist events only. We further identify and interpret the local effects of major global and regional terrorism drivers. Our study demonstrates the potential of theoretically informed models to predict and explain complex forms of political violence at policy-relevant scales.

One major challenge in the medication of Parkinson’s disease is that the severity of the disease, reflected in the patients’ motor state, cannot be measured using accessible biomarkers. Therefore, we develop and examine a variety of statistical models to detect the motor state of such patients based on sensor data from a wearable device. We find that deep learning models consistently outperform a classical machine learning model applied on hand-crafted features in this time series classification task. Furthermore, our results suggest that treating this problem as a regression instead of an ordinal regression or a classification task is most appropriate. For consistent model evaluation and training, we adopt the leave-one-subject-out validation scheme to the training of deep learning models. We also employ a class-weighting scheme to successfully mitigate the problem of high multi-class imbalances in this domain. In addition, we propose a customized performance measure that reflects the requirements of the involved medical staff on the model. To solve the problem of limited availability of high quality training data, we propose a transfer learning technique which helps to improve model performance substantially. Our results suggest that deep learning techniques offer a high potential to autonomously detect motor states of patients with Parkinson’s disease.